2013 Outlook: CJ Spiller

CJ Spiller had a tremendous college career. His YPC the last 2 seasons have been excellent. He’s obviously extremely talented, productive, and trending towards stardom. On the surface it seems like a slam dunk to take him in the top half of the first round this August when most of us will be drafting, but is he really a sure thing? You won’t win your league with your first pick, but you could blow it if your biggest investment doesn’t pan out. His current expert consensus rankis #6 overall, so he comes at a hefty price. Let’s take a closer look at what Spiller could yield you in 2013.

The biggest cause for concern should be the loss of Andy Levitre on the offensive line. The Bills ran 49 times directly behind Levtire last season for an average of 6.43 YPC, the highest mark in the NFL. Losing Levitre isn’t a death sentence though; Spiller deserves credit for producing that stat as well. Cordy Glenn and Eric Wood remain excellent players to pave the way. Just note that on paper the situation isn’t as ideal as it was last year and expectations should be adjusted accordingly.

We also need to factor in the addition of a new coaching staff. Whenever there’s turnover there’s uncertainty, but based on their resumes it seems to bode well for CJ. Doug Marrone, the new HC, ran the ball 54% of the time during his tenure at Syracuse. Pat Morris, the new OL coach, has coached o-lines that produced the #1 rushing offense three times in his career. The only hang-up that could hamper Spiller is Tyrone Wheatley, the new RB coach. Here’s what he had to say recently:

New Bills running backs coach Tyrone Wheatley told the media he expects to utilize both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson in the Bills' rushing attack. He said the run game will involve both backs at times and one back at other times. Though he didn't get into what each back would do or how often they'd hit the field, he did share his thoughts on splitting reps, something he did as a pro. "Later in my career I shared with Charlie Garner, I shared with Napoleon Kaufman and Zack Crockett and it worked out perfect because I was in the mode and the philosophy that I had a specific role," Wheatley said. "In my opinion once a player understands his role and understand the overall scheme and philosophy, you’re there. ... Do you want to rush for 2,000 yards and be home for the playoffs or do you want to rush for 500 yards and get a Super Bowl ring?"

By the sound of that Spiller won’t be receiving a Peterson/Foster/Lynch type workload, but it’s not a complete timeshare either. Keep in mind Fred Jackson is 32, only averaged 3.8 YPC last year, and is coming off a knee injury. If something happens to Jackson then we can alter projections, but until then we should only project Spiller to receive a couple more touches a game this season. If F-Jax can’t make it late into the season, the potential is there for him to become a workhorse. That’s a huge boon come time for fantasy playoffs.

History gives us an indication of what we can reasonably expect out of coaches and players, but the past isn’t always the biggest clue for us to gather information from. Times change, strategies evolve, and the Bills offseason moves should give us a hint that the Bills might become a pass happy team. They drafted QB EJ Manuel in the first, WR Robert Woods in the second, and WR Marquise Goodwin in the third. They replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick with Kevin Kolb. The personnel suggests the Bills plan on putting the ball in the air more this year. Manuel is the real wildcard of the group. When he finally sees the field the offense turns into a read option. He will cut into carries himself and vulture a few TDS at the goal line. Not ideal for Spiller, although I think the option would be beneficial for his YPC.

Spiller hasn’t missed any time the last 2 years, but I think he’s finally “due” for an injury. Last year there were 16 running backs that received 200+ carries and played in all 16 games. There were 7 in 2011, 16 in 2010, 13 in 2009, and 14 in 2008. This means a team’s primary ball carrier has at best a 50% chance of playing in every game. Running backs are fragile creatures in the hard hitting NFL. There is a high probability of him missing at least 1 game with CJ finally getting the bulk of the carries from the start of the season.

When Spiller finally did see an increased role in the second half of last season, he “faded” down the stretch. He “only” ran for 5.2 YPC in games 9-16 compared to 7.2 PYC in games 1-8. 5 of the top 6 rushers saw their YPC increase in games 9-16. With more wear and tear expected from the get go and the loss of Levitre, it’s not unreasonable to think his YPC falls short of 5. I’m projecting him at 4.8 YPC, would have been the 5th best mark in the league amongst running backs with over 115 carries. It might seem like an aggressive regression, but it’s still elite in that category for primary ball carriers.

There’s a great deal of upside in Spiller, but I can’t justify taking him ahead of proven commodities in Rice/Rodgers/Lynch/Brees who also have stable situations. He hasn’t shown a knack for finding the end zone and until he does that’s going to prevent him from reaching top tier status. An argument can easily be made for McCoy/Richardson/Marshall/Green/Morris to be taken ahead of him as well. None of this is meant to bash Spiller, just to highlight his surroundings and how he adapts to them. He’s still a sure fire starter in your fantasy league, no question about it, but is he worth his ADP? In the 1st round I’d rather be safe than sorry.

2013 Projection: 15 games, 225 carries, 1,080 yards, 5 TD, 40 receptions, 350 yards, 2 TD, 2 lost fumbles.